Game Theory Takes On Life After Death

Any writer delving into paranormal subject matter, particularly related to life after death, runs the risk of crossing the line on some readers' religious beliefs.  Mindful of this problem, I made a deliberate attempt to keep The Case Files of Thomas Carney religion neutral.  Tom starts the book as an agnostic--he states neither belief nor disbelief in God--and his outlook remains the same to the finish.  When confronted with his new situation in Afterlife, he deals with what he knows to be materially true as events unfold, not what he expects to be true out of a preconceived spiritual framework.

As part of a recent issue on the new theological rendering of hell and expectations of the afterlife, Time writer Bill Saporito included this interesting assessment:

French mathematician Blaise Pascal famously pondered ROE (return on equity,  or in this case, eternity) in the spiritual-investment quandary called Pascal's Wager.  It's an exercise in game theory. A rationalist, Pascal thought about how he might bet against God's very existence and behave accordingly: more rosé, fewer rosaries. But he also knew that had he pursued a hedonistic lifestyle and God existed, a negative outcome would ensue. And he'd be totally, eternally screwed. Better to believe, he reasoned. In Pascal's logic, the rational spiritual investor becomes risk averse and spends a big chunk of the portfolio with God. Pascal, in other words, recommended that you hedge your spiritual investment.


If, in mathematical terms, you assign a zero probability that hell exists, then the rational spiritual investor reduces his exposure, since the expected ROE has been declined. "What do you give up?" asks Yale University professor Keith Chen, a game-theory expert. What's relevant in game theory is the difference between the good and bad outcomes. "If the idea is everybody goes to heaven and everybody enjoys the same privileges, then it unwinds Pascal's Wager," he says.


But both Chen and another game theorist at Yale, Barry Nalebuff, immediately posed another possibility: Is there a nonhell that's still not heaven? (Bell even suggests as much.) If there is heaven and a not-so-good nonhell, there's still a wager, although the spiritual investor might adjust it. Says Nalebuff: "The trick is, what's the cost of leaving?" In this view, Pascal's Wager is more like playing the lottery, says Nalebuff. If you win, heaven is the prize. If you don't, it's just a couple of spiritual bucks lost.

Read more:  A Threat to the Evangelical Business Plan
For those who prefer the old school, here's a photo series:  A Brief History of Hell